tl;dr Dept., Or How PEC Does What It Does And Why Mathier Is Better When You’re Doing, Y’Know, Math
The linked post is pretty heavy stuff, but at least look at the first couple paragraphs before Sam Wang gets all mathy with it. He also does a good job of explaining why PEC is different, by design, from 538—that the goals are different, and perhaps the motivations as well.
Not Quite A Polling Update, But Close. Because Nothing’s Changed, That’s Why.
So Sam Wang has a theory about why 538 is so much more indecisive than people who know how to use math. He thinks that in addition to using means instead of medians (which in itself adds volatility due to the effect of single outlying results), they may be double-counting
Clinton Goes Nuclear
While the polls are unlikely to show much movement from last Friday’s Comeymania™ (no, srsly, they’re not–polls do always tighten somewhat in the last weeks of a campaign, but that’s it), Sec. Clinton has gone on the offensive in a way that many people felt she should have done some
So, is ANYthing happening? Umm, well….
So since there’s nothing new to talk about again, but I’m trying to do something every day, let’s go to the videotape. In the last three presidential elections, and you may not know this, but the Democratic candidate has actually outperformed the polls, after previous underperformance.