Not Quite A Polling Update, But Close. Because Nothing’s Changed, That’s Why.

So Sam Wang has a theory about why 538 is so much more indecisive than people who know how to use math. He thinks that in addition to using means instead of medians (which in itself adds volatility due to the effect of single outlying results), they may be double-counting many national polls, which amplifies the effect.

My takeaway is somewhat less charitable (no!): It does, however, give them the opportunity to say “See, I told you to be worried” if Trump wins, and “See, I told you it was almost certain” if Clinton does.

PS Someone asked why did N*te Silv*r so obviously dye his hair black? My answer was not to worry, he’ll just wait until Election Day, see what the smarter guys are doing, and change it again.

PPS Because nothing’s really happening, here’s a picture of Sydney showing what she thinks about the whole thing.



I've got a dog. Used to have a fish.


You can post comments in this post.

  • I’m glad you’re offering a same voice during this campaign. I’ve never felt more anxiety over an election.

    Georgianna Pappas 7 years ago Reply

    • I’m not promising I’m actually right about anything, but I can at least convincingly feign sanity.

      John 7 years ago Reply

  • just tell me it’s all going to be ok.

    joy 7 years ago Reply

    • Unless the numbers are really truly terribly horribly nearly all wrong, despite her manifold and manifest flaws as a candidate for office, Sec. Clinton’s got this. In recent election cycles the polls have typically understated the margin of the winning party.

      John 7 years ago Reply

  • Will you hold our hands and leave the lights on until we can say President-Elect Clinton?

    stvrsnbrgr 7 years ago Reply

    • Unless she does something really stupid in the next 60 hours, yes. Start worrying about 2020.

      John 7 years ago Reply

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